The doomsday scenarios painted by American think tanks, researchinstitutes, and intellectuals and studies sponsored the US Department of State that Pakistan will disappear in twenty years must not be taken lightly.
It would be wise to take these as timely warnings which must be analysed to establish if these are fiction or fact.
Such forecasts as propaganda ploys are not new.
Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, Vallahbahi Patel, Kirpalani and other leaders of the Indian National Congress had predicted that “the truncated state of Pakistan”, will collapse and fall apart within two to five years.
They said that Pakistan was not economically, geographically, politically, racially or culturally viable.
New Delhi’s refusal at the outset to hand over Pakistan’s share of central funds and assets was a motivated move to ensure Pakistan’s economic collapse.
It did not happen because Pakistani nation took up the challenge, and with fortitude and hardwork helped build a strong Pakistan, which has survived the vicissitudes of political failures and military interventions.
To destabilise and subvert the new state India invaded Jammu and Kashmir in October 1947, and actively funded and supported the Pushtoonistan stunt.
The people of Kashmir supported by their Pakistani brothers confronted and successfully halted Indian military aggression in Kashmir.
The Red Shirt movement under Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan and the fiery anti-Pakistan propaganda by the Kabul regime continued for about three decades, i.e.
till the Red Army was defeated and thrown out of Afghanistan by the valiant Afghan Mujahidin.
The Afghan regime under king Zahir Shah was the only country which on Indian prodding opposed Pakistan’s entry into the United Nations in August 1947.
The three wars(1948-49, 1965 and 1971) were imposed by India to defeat and destroy Pakistan.
Indian intelligence agencies, especially RAW, has been engaged since long in violent subversive activities to create social and political unrest.
The motivated hate campaign against Pakistan Army and allegations against ISI are part of the ongoing Indian game plan to discredit Pakistan and its armed forces.
India and Israel have been discussing since long plans to subvert Pakistani polity and economy, and tarnish its image by utterly false propaganda of close association and involvement with the ongoing eleven-year old freedom struggle in occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
The canard by Robert M.
Kaplan that Pakistan will disintegrate in 15 to 20 years because it had inherited the most problem-prone part of the sub-continent fits into India’s evil wish list.
Kaplan in his article published by “The Atlantic Monthly” for September 2000 surmises that Pakistan is unlikely to survive as a state for several reasons including disparities between provinces, fallout of the Afghan conflict, Karachi situation and the institutional meltdown.
Ashley Tellis a Rand researcher of Indian origin, visualises a US-India nexus against Pakistan.
That India is already a major factor in US defence policy making, and US will soon see India as a partner of choice against Pakistan.
A US Commission on National security, chaired by former Senator Warren Rudman and Gary Hart projects several different scenarios including a conflict over Afghanistan and possible breakup of Pakistan due to ethnic discontents with India emerging to regional pre-eminence by the year 2025.
Scenario one visualises that Sindhis, Baluchs and Pathans have long resented Punjabi dominated Pakistan and along with the Mohajirs they will all rebel.
This scenario is not new.
The so called nationalist leaders with narrow and highly prejudiced views have been engaged since long in fuelling and stoking regionalism, provincialism and sectarian, linguistic and ethnic acrimony.
Paid enemy agents are busy fuelling and fomenting inter-provincial strife by a contrived highly derogatory propaganda against Punjab and the “Punjabi establishment” to grind their own axes at the cost of national unity and stability.
These wise American Brahmins forecast that Talibans destabilisation efforts and the growing power of Jamaat-e- Islami will push Pakistan towards anarchy and disintegration.
But such assumptions to say the least are incorrect, because while the Taliban are engaged in the war against the US-India- Russian funded, and supported Northern Alliance; Jamaat-i-Islami in fact is engaged in a Herculean effort to save Pakistan from internal chaos and anarchy.
Jamaat-i-Islami’s political influence does not suit Indo-Russian- US designs against Pakistan.
Pushtoonistan stunt fuelled by Moscow and New Delhi died in 1979 when the Red Army invaded Afghanistan.
By 1989 five million Afghan refugees were forced out of their homes and pushed into Pakistan.
By 1989 when the Red Army was defeated and thrown out and finally by 1992 when the Communist regime was overthrown in Kabul, very few Afghans or Pushtoons wanted to talk of Pushtoonistan which by then had died a natural death.
Moscow and New Delhi had themselves destroyed this anti-Pakistan trump card, and are once again engaged in conspiracies against Taliban ruled Afghanistan and Army ruled Pakistan.
During the last 53 years the Pushtoons of NWFP, Balochistan and FATA have gradually integrated themselves into Pakistan’s polity and economy.
Hundreds of thousands of Afghans who have chosen not to return to Afghanistan are benefiting hugely from trade and transportation business.
By participating very actively in commercial, trade, smuggling and transportation activities the Pushtoons have a huge stake in Pakistan’s economy and security.
The economic and commercial benefits from trade and smuggling have enabled the Pushtoons and Afghans today control 80% of long haulage transportation, ninety percent of tankers, fifty percent flour mills, and entire import and export business to Afghanistan, Iran and beyond.
With fair share in the construction industry, agriculture, trade and national economy the Pushtoons today have a stake in Pakistan’s economy and security.
Fifty percent of the officers and men in uniform in the armed forces, para-military forces, police and bureaucracy are Pathans.
In the NWFP with the ethnic ratio of 51%, 90% government jobs are held by ethnic Pushtoons.
Similarly in Balochistan with 35 % population about eighty percent government posts are held by the Pushtoons.
They have total hold over Baluchistan’s mineral resources especially coal and marble mines.
They own most of the fruit orchards in that province.
Pathans also figure prominently in the banking, federal bureaucracy and every other profitable sector.
The Pushtoons never had it so good, yet some of them carry uncalled grouse against the Punjabis, which is because of illiteracy and insufficient social mix.
Intermarriages between Punjabis and Pathans is one way of solving this problem.
Such marriages by and large have proved successful.
The danger of religious fanaticism, sectarianism, Talibanisation and tribal and ethnic passions wrecking Pakistan is an appropriate warning.
Ethnic and sectarian passions could be fomented beyond control by illiterate Ulema-e-Karam and foreign funded politicians.
The Jehadi militant organisations are flouting the law of the land when preaching extremism and anarchy.
They are benefiting from undue publicity and government’s attitude of looking the other way when the Jehadis flex their muscles by provocative rallies.
The United States especially the US Department of State assumes that Jehadis have support of the Army regime for their activities inside and outside the country.
US officials including Secretary of State Medeline Albright, Karl Inderfurth are vocal about it and this has brought a very bad name to Pakistan.
They allege that the Jehadis are being encouraged by the State, while in their view they should be discouraged and their activities should be kept under check.
The adverse propaganda and wrong conclusions about Pakistan’s future are because of the deeping rifts between fanatic and extremist religious, sectarian, tribal and ethnic armed outfits and their propaganda against the Pakistan state, its rulers, cabinet ministers and its institutions.
Fanatic Maulvis in their sermons to captive audience have ridiculed every reform for the Army regime including its success in getting IMF approval of $ 596 million credit.
This creates frustration and low morale and has to be stopped.
Their dangerous activities should be controlled by proper strategy, persuasive pressure and firm governance.
Politicians and bureaucrats on the run from the law have amassed big fortunes through corruption including massive loan defaults.
They never had any scruples and many of them are in the pay of foreign governments and agencies.
They are being used to run down the government and create ethnic and sectarian strife and anarchy.
The Army government has taken note of their mischief, but it is important that the masses weigh their hate filled rhetoric carefully and comprehend their motives in criticising the “Punjabi establishment” or evil pronouncements that “only the Army needs Pakistan”.
These turn coats are the real enemy.
They are more dangerous than the enemy.
The country is passing through difficult times.
But with the support and hard work of the masses, resilience and dedication of the regime especially successful implementation of the devolution plan Pakistan once again will get back on the democracy track.
The Army will go back to the barracks, and the people will once again become their own masters.
The ill-wishers will be distraught and disappointed when this happens.
Source:By Air Marshal (Retd) Ayaz Ahmed Khan
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